Features

The Middle East airlines will need 2,526 new planes over the next two decades

The Middle East airlines will need 2,526 new planes over the next two decades



Need for aircraft worth $5.3trn seen

The world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4 per cent per year

July 2017

Increasing numbers of first time flyers, rising disposable income, expanding tourism, and new routes are driving a need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a total of $5.3 trillion in the next 20 years, a report said.

Meanwhile, the world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4 per cent per year, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast 2017-2036.

Over 70 per cent of new units are single aisle with 60 per cent for growth and 40 per cent for replacement of less fuel efficient aircraft.

A doubling in the commercial fleet over the next 20 years sees a need for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers, and provides Airbus’ global services business a catalyst to grow. Airbus has expanded its global network of training locations from five to 16 in the space of three years

Air traffic growth is highest in emerging markets such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the 3.2 per cent per year growth forecast in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe. Emerging markets currently home to 6.4 billion of the world’s 7.4 billion population will account for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s private consumption by 2036.

“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer – Customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft. “Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market. Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”

Over the next 20 years Asia Pacific is set to take 41 per cent of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20 per cent and North America at 16 per cent, Middle East 7 per cent and Africa 3 per cent. Middle class numbers will almost double to nearly five billion as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible particularly in emerging economies where spending on air travel services is set to double.

In the twin aisle segment, such as the A330 Family, A350 XWB Family and the A380, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 10,100 aircraft valued at $2.9 trillion.

In the single aisle segment, such as the A320neo Family, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 24,810 aircraft valued at $2.4 trillion. Airlines adding capacity by upsizing to the largest single aisle, the A321, will find even more business opportunities with the A321neo thanks to its range up to 4,000nm and unbeatable fuel efficiency. In 2016, the A321 represented over 40 per cent of single aisle deliveries and over 60 per cent of single aisle orders.

 

Mideast needs 2,526 planes

Referring to the Middle East region, the report said that the Middle East airlines will need 2,526 new planes over the next two decades until 2036, mainly driven by a 5.9 per cent passenger growth and increasing connections with major destinations across the world.

Of the total demand, 2,010 aircraft are additional demand, while 516 planes are for replacing an aging fleet.

This will take the total number of aircraft in the Middle East region to 3,186 planes by 2036, from 1,178 aircraft at the beginning of 2017, Leahy said in a report.

Also, the region will need 52,890 new pilots and 58,200 new technicians for another 20 years, he added.

The annual average economic growth in the Middle East region is estimated at 3.4 per cent for the next two decades. Apart from a robust growth in passenger traffic, the opening up of the Iran market is driving growth in demand for commercial aircraft.

In Dubai, 46 per cent of passenger traffic is origin and destination traffic, with a further 17 per cent accounting for intra-regional connecting passengers.

The connectivity to and from the region has grown dramatically over the same period, with the number of city pairs more than tripling from nearly 200 in 1990 to more than 700 in 2016, added Leahy.

The Middle East airlines will also spend $190 billion on maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) for another two decades.




More Stories



Tags