01 January 2022

Global trade volume edges down 0.8pc in Q3: WTO

The volume of world merchandise trade fell 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2021 after four consecutive quarters of strong expansion, as supply chain disruptions, shortages of production inputs and rising Covid-19 cases weighed on trade growth, said the World Trade Organization (WTO) in a new report.

Despite strong headwinds contributing to the decline in the third quarter, trade volume was still up 11.9 per cent for the year-to-date through September. This is slightly worse than the WTO’s most recent trade forecast of 4 October, which anticipated a 12.7 per cent rise over the same period. The forecast of a 10.8 per cent increase in merchandise trade for the whole of 2021 could still be realised if fourth quarter data show a pickup in volume growth. This is a real possibility since measures to unblock container ports on the west coast of the US have met with some success.

Also, even though the WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer has signalled a cooling of trade growth in the closing months of 2021, it still remains on trend. Nevertheless, the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 appears to have tipped the balance of risks towards the downside, increasing the chance of a more negative outcome.

In contrast to volume, the value of world merchandise trade continued to climb in the third quarter as export and import prices rose sharply. World trade as measured by the average of exports and imports was up 24 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter in nominal US dollar terms. This growth is weaker than the 46 per cent jump in the second quarter but stronger than the 15 per cent increase in the first quarter.

Trade values were boosted by primary commodities including fuels, prices of which more than doubled between the third quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2021. According to IMF statistics, Fuel prices dipped in November after peaking in October, but they were still up 137 per cent year-on-year.


Wide-body commercial aircraft segment set to grow

Growth in the number of domestic and international air-travel passengers, significant growth in global GDP, technological advancements and tourism sector, are key drivers for growth in the commercial aircraft market.

Further, innovation in commercial aircraft design, improved features, and eco-friendly approach are catalysts for growth in commercial aircraft with turbofan engine, while wide-body aircraft are expected to experience huge demand from Asia-Pacific markets as they have the capacity to carry large amount of load over long-haul routes, EINPresswire.com reported.

In 2014, commercial aircraft with turbofan engine accounted for about 59 per cent of the total market. It is expected to dictate the analysis period with a CAGR of 5.9 per cent, owing to its eco-friendly and low-noise design.

Geographically, Asia-Pacific market dominated the global commercial aircraft market in 2014. It is expected to continue its dominance with a CAGR of 6.4 per cent due to an increase in the number of air passengers, significant growth in GDP of prominent countries in Asia-Pacific, supportive government initiatives, and a possible increase in demand for wide-body aircraft.

Global commercial aircraft market is growing at a CAGR of 5.8 per cent and projected to reach $209 billion by 2022, according to a new report published by Allied Market Research. The turbofan engines segment is expected to dominate the market throughout 2016 - 2022. Asia-Pacific would probably continue to lead, as it had accounted for around 40 per cent share of the commercial aircraft market in 2014.

Key findings of the commercial aircraft market:

- In 2014, commercial aircraft with turbofan engines led the overall commercial aircraft market revenue, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9 per cent during the forecast period.

- Wide-body commercial aircraft segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6.2 per cent, because of its ability to carry large amount of load for long-haul routes and possibility of an increase in demand for wide-body aircraft from the Asia-Pacific.

- Government vertical generated the maximum revenue in commercial aircraft market in 2014.

- Middle East accounted for about 44 per cent share of the LAMEA commercial aircraft market in 2014.


Saudi Expo 2020 pavilion attracts over 2m visitors

The Saudi Arabian Pavilion at Expo 2020 Dubai announced that it has received two million visitors in 86 days from various Arab and foreign nationalities, nearly 30 per cent of the total number of visitors to the world event, since its opening in October. The milestone was celebrated by pavilion employees with Expo visitors with laser lights and a fireworks display, SPA reported.

Last month, Expo 2020 organisers recorded 7,167,591 visits to the event up to December 20 even as some activities were suspended as a precautionary measure amidst concerns over the spread of new Covid-19 variants. Organisers have announced they will ring in 2022 with live activities on December 31, including a music festival featuring two DJs, two fireworks displays and a midnight ‘ball drop’ at al-Wasl Plaza.


Tourism, retail ‘to fuel Dubai’s economic growth’

Dubai is expected to see sustained economic growth in 2022 supported by an expected uptick in business activity in the tourism and retail sectors, according to new analysis from Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry.

The data insights, released during a business seminar titled The Road Ahead: UAE and Dubai Economic Outlook and Opportunities in Dubai Exports, pointed to a positive and robust recovery for the UAE economy over the next five years.

In 2022, the UAE economy is projected to record an estimated annual GDP growth rate of 3.4 per cent, due to the expected recovery in domestic demand, recovery in international oil prices and the rebound in global demand for goods and services since mid-2020 onwards. Expo 2020 Dubai and the adjustment to the Monday-Friday work week is expected to improve the prospects of UAE trade and business with the rest of the world in the short- to medium-term. Economic sectors that are expected to add momentum to the country’s economic recovery over the period 2022-2025, include transport and telecommunication, trade, hospitality and real estate and business services.

The data also revealed that Dubai exports and re-exports recovered in the first half of 2021, reaching pre-pandemic levels. The research has found that increasing the exports of newly diversified products will support further the growth of Dubai trade augmented by the expected role to be played by Dubai Industrial Strategy 2030 in product diversification of exports.

According to Dubai Chamber Macro Economic Model (DCMM), the entire UAE economy began to recover in 2021 by registering an estimated annual GDP growth rate of 3.1 per cent and a 3.8 per cent for GDP excluding the oil sector.

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